What is the State of Marriage?
At this time last year, The Wedding Guys team was in New York City ready to film 52 couples who would be wed in a mass ceremony in Central Park for the finale of the new TLC series ‘Say Yes to the Dress America’. We were riding high with the excitement of how amazing weddings are. Not mention what would become an epic ceremony splashed across all the media.
Everyone was ramped up because the future outlook for our industry seemed more than amazing. All ndicators Pointed to 2020 being a breakout year of weddings.
Things changed.
It all came to an abrupt halt. Since joining the industry in 1995, I can honestly say I’ve never seen anything like this. 2020 will prove to be the most difficult year in the wedding business.
We watch each year as our industry changes and we’ve been reporting on the health of our local wedding industry each July as we take the pulse of what is happening. Our purpose is to give you a straight-forward analysis of market conditions. This way, you will be best prepared with the ever-changing market dynamics.
Are you finding yourself asking the question ‘What is going to happen to our industry?”
This is the question that seems to be top of mind for wedding professionals just like you. Each time we connect with our clients, partners, and exhibitors everyone is wondering what the future holds. We know that this has been devastating to businesses in our industry. Our team is here to help you navigate the next steps in rebuilding your business.
We hope that you find our annual 2020 State of the Union helpful. It’s meant to shed some light on the market forces which continue to shape and mold your business strategies. We hope by providing these valuable insights, we will also be able to help you make best-practice decisions for your business.
In reaction to the changing market, we have been continually investing in both talent and infrastructure to maintain our commitment to reaching more couples than ever before. We’ve been working hard throughout the pandemic. In addition to our ‘FIND THE DATE’ program, we have a range of new initiatives that will put us even further ahead of the pack this coming year. Watch for exciting promotions and media tie-ins over the coming months. With the enhancements that we added in the past year, we are also reaching more couples than ever before. We detail out some of our on-going work below.
One thing we know is that when faced with market challenges the last thing you should do is decrease your marketing efforts. Instead, we believe in expanding our investments and it’s clearly paying off. This last year you saw our expansion in web, television, radio, and print. You’ll see us, even more, this coming year, including another segment on Twin Cities Live tomorrow! We look forward to continuing to provide you with the region’s best wedding marketing platform and we can’t wait to help you to succeed in 2021!
In fellowship,
Matthew Trettel
New Business Analysis: Wedding-related business growth down; but not for long.
Over the last three years, we have watched as an unprecedented number of new entrepreneurs have started wedding businesses. And while a whopping 3,500 new businesses have entered our market since 2015, there has been a steady decline in new businesses in the last two years.
Each year we track the number of new businesses. Last year in spite of a decline in the number of new businesses that we saw enter the local industry, we logged nearly 600 new businesses that either requested advertising information from us or we tracked as new advertising to the wedding market. We do see the start-up numbers tending to a downturn as the overall market continues to constrict. However with the latest influx of businesses the market is over-saturated in most categories.
Watch for more competition in the next year as we expect new businesses to spike. Like in 2008, we expect to see many furloughed and unemployed people turn their focus to becoming entrepreneurs in the wedding business. With a low barrier to entry and low-investment opportunities like bridal shows, it’s not hard to jump-start a new wedding business.
With an anticipated increase in competition and fewer weddings happening each year, booking business will likely become more challenging. Prepare to be more aggressive in your sales and marketing strategies to win at booking business this year.
For your reference, we also tracked new businesses by category. The most common new businesses include:
Photographers: 65
Reception sites: 91
Beauty: 36
Musical Entertainment: 28
Florists: 20
Catering: 19
Honeymoon/Destination Weddings: 17
Cakes/Desserts: 16
Invitations/Stationery: 10
Consultants/Planners: 23
Videographers: 16
Bridal Salons/Fashion: 11
Beverage & Bar Services: 8
2019 WEDDINGS TRENDING DOWN
Fewer Americans are getting married and this is true in our local market. Last year, the number of marriage licenses issued in the metro area dropped by 7%, the largest decrease in four years.
The state of weddings has been changing. As couples are redefining their relationships, many are choosing to marry later or cohabitate without marrying. Marriage rates have steadily declined since the 1970s. However, with these changes, we’ve also seen the divorce rate at it’s lowest since the 1970s as well. This means our industry is getting crunched from both directions.
Early predictions were that the cumulative number of weddings would remain stable since we’ve been seeing population growth. But in spite of the fact that the metro area grew by nearly 37,000 residents, the number of weddings was down 7% over the previous year.
COVID-19 will skew the numbers even more. Predictions are that more than 60% of weddings planned for 2020 will move to 2021. It’s also predicted that these weddings will be smaller than originally planned. For businesses that are priced primarily based on headcount, plan for a significant change in overall revenue in 2021.
MARRIAGE TODAY: Keeping Costs Down
Each year we get important data from third-party sources and through our network of media partnerships. This year we analyzed some interesting statistics from The Wedding Report and a survey of Gen Z and Millennial adults and their parents:
- Overall spending is down
- In 27 major categories, couples are spending less than they did 10 years ago
- Average spend on formalwear (tuxedos/suits) down from $456 in 2008 to $321 in 2019
- Attendant gifts went from $275 in 2008 to $98 in 2019
- Wedding favors decreased to $231 from $307 in 2008
- In 27 major categories, couples are spending less than they did 10 years ago
- Couples have increased spending in the following categories:
- Dress spend up at $1238 in 2019 vs. $918 in 2008
- Planning services
- Decor
- Personal Flowers
- Almost 4 in 10 young people intend to foot the bill for their own wedding, even though 93% of adults say they will pay for their child’s nuptials.
- These couples are not willing to spend a lot on wedding and engagement rings.
- 82% of Gen Z and 69% of Millennials believe an engagement ring should cost under $2500, almost half the national average.
- Women of both generations would expect to spend less for an engagement ring: 15% of Gen Z and 28% of Millennial women feel a ring should cost more than $2500; The guys aren’t so sure: 19% of Gen Z men and 33% of millennial men peg the cost of a ring over $2500
- 82% of Gen Z and 69% of Millennials believe an engagement ring should cost under $2500, almost half the national average.
But not everyone gets married, and it has ramifications for their financial future:
- One in four Generation Z and Millennials don’t plan to marry
- Marrying appears to help achieve financial independence sooner. Half of the young, married women and 44% of young, married men said they would be independent by age 20. 96% of these married women expect to be – or were – financially independent by age 26. Single women were less sure, with only 34% expecting to be independent by age 20, and only 85% anticipating full financial independence by age 26.
- Married young Americans are twice as likely to have started saving for retirement as their single counterparts. Married couples generally buy a home at age 25 while singles wait until 27.
HOW TO ANALYZE YOUR MARKET: What to know about national statistics
Last year we shared an analysis from a wedding business related to statistics they received from The Wedding Report, Inc., a research company that tracks and forecasts the number of weddings, spending, and consumer trends for the wedding industry. We thought it would be good to readdress the information again this year so that you are armed with the best information possible.
Here is the initial analysis we received from an exhibitor:
“If 20% of engaged couples attend a show (and that’s the number I have from the wedding report) and only 20% of couples rent photo entertainment, then at most, I’m only reaching 4% of the market at even the best show.“
We’ve relied on The Wedding Report for analysis of data points, so we thought we would look into national reporting based on the data we compiled specifically from the local market.
Our first project was to determine the number of marriage licenses issued in the Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI (Metropolitan Area). This gives at least a snapshot for comparison. We contacted each of the 20 counties in the metro area and found that the numbers reported varied significantly from the numbers we received from The Wedding Report; differing by as much as 13%. (This year’s figures differed by as much as 23% in some counties)
During this compilation of data, we also inquired about the number of civil marriages that were performed by a judge at the courthouse. Since the majority of civil marriages performed at the courthouse do not result in a formal reception, we factored this into the calculation of the number of overall weddings in the market.
Based on our own research we determined there were approximately 16,600 weddings in the market in 2018, down to 15,400 in 2019. Of these 15,400 weddings, we registered nearly 4,000 couples at our shows, meaning from our shows alone we tracked 26% of all weddings in the market.
Using the statistic that 20% of couples rent a photo booth, you would expect to see at least 800 couples, at our shows alone, that will rent a photo booth. Meaning our shows alone reach 23% of all couples looking for photo booth services.
Based on our market share we can also extend that, in combination with the other major shows, over 40% of couples in this market attend a major bridal show. That is more than double the average that The Wedding Report reports nationally. This means that of the 3,500 couples planning to rent a photo booth, almost 1400 will attend a bridal show each year. This is a significantly higher number than the wedding business would have calculated based solely on the average numbers from The Wedding Report.
While national averages and localized surveys can help in evaluating your market, make sure to do your research to ensure the data is accurate for you specifically.
THE WEDDING GUYS BY THE NUMBERS
- 12,500 Registered Couples with upcoming wedding dates
- 578,400 monthly Pinterest impressions last month
- 186 blog posts last year
- 10,700 show attendees last season
- 234 Fashions on our Runway
The Wedding Guys Reach 75% of overall bridal show attendees in market
While you saw a significant uptick in overall market attendance for major bridal shows between 2012 and 2015, since then we have seen an overall decrease in attendance for major shows as indicated in the yellow line in the graph above. This trend coincides with the overall decrease in the number of weddings in the market each year.
During this 9-year period, however, you have seen continued market share growth for shows produced by The Wedding Guys, which is indicated by the pink line in the graph above. With The Wedding Guys attendance increasing by 263% over this period!
In fact, based on facility reported attendance numbers, over 75% of all major bridal show attendees are choosing shows produced by The Wedding Guys in our market.
The Wedding Guys Maintain Market Dominance for Major Bridal Shows
When compared to attendance numbers of other major shows in the market you can see the growth trajectory of The Wedding Guys, shown again with the pink line on the graph above. This compares to the total attendance of other major shows denoted by the blue line.
Over 10,500 guests attended The Wedding Guys shows this past season.
2020-2021 Show Season
September 27, 2020 – Twin Cities Bridal Show – Saint Paul RiverCentre
January 3, 2021 – Twin Cities Bridal Show – Saint Paul RiverCentre
January 10, 2021 – UNVEILED Rochester – J. Powers
February 21, 2021 – UNVEILED – Minneapolis Convention Center
February 21, 2021 – Honeymoon & Destination Wedding Showcase @ UNVEILED
